通胀模块Inflation Module
核心 PCECore PCE
把原始价格指数、当前版本增速、首发冻结目标和未公布月份的现时预测分开呈现。Separates the price index, current-vintage growth, frozen first-release target, and the nowcast for the unreleased month.
当前周期读数Current-cycle readout
所有数值按目标合同的单位展示；缺失值保留为 N/A，不用 0 代替。Values use the target contract's units; unavailable values remain N/A rather than being replaced with zero.
目标合同与发布时间Target contract and timing
月度期间、数据可用日和模型目标不是同一个时间概念。The monthly period, data availability date, and model target are different time concepts.
最新源序列指数Latest source index130.662026-07-01
当前版本环比 / 同比Current-vintage MoM / YoY0.25% / 3.34%可随修订变化，不是冻结目标Revisable; not the frozen target
预测目标期Forecast target period2026-08-31核心 PCE 月度Core PCE monthly period
实际首发可用日Recorded first-release availability2026-08-26当前已实现目标的可用时间Availability for the latest realized target
口径说明Contract note
2.94% 表示首发冻结指数的单月变化按连续复利折成年率；它不是价格指数水平，也不应直接当作 BEA 当前版本的普通月环比。下一期 2.94% 是尚未公布目标期的现时预测。2.94% is the first-release index change annualized with continuous compounding; it is neither the price-index level nor the current-vintage BEA MoM rate. The 2.94% value is a nowcast for an unreleased target month.
原始观测期间Source observation period2026-07-01
目标实际实现期间Realized target period2026-07-31
预计下一次官方发布Expected next official release2026-09-30
目标合同 IDTarget contract ID28f3c1fad382
模型资格与线上结算Model qualification and live settlement
回测资格、预测状态和实盘结算分别统计。Backtest qualification, forecast status, and live settlement are reported separately.
模型状态Model status基线保护（未证明模型优势）Baseline guard (no demonstrated model edge)Baseline[last]
近期 MASERecent MASE1.000低于 1 才优于基准Below 1 beats the benchmark
全期 MASEFull-sample MASE1.058低于 1 才证明全期优于基准Below 1 is required to beat the full-sample benchmark
指标评估口径Metric evaluation policy外层滚动自适应策略Adaptive outer rolling policyforecast.model_spec_by_date
近期相对基线技能Recent skill vs benchmark0.0%0 表示近期与基准持平0 means recent parity with the benchmark
95%预测区间95% prediction interval-0.34% – 6.22%用于表达不确定性Communicates uncertainty
已结算实盘样本Settled live samples0尚无已结算实盘样本No settled live samples yet
待结算冻结预测Unsettled frozen forecasts22回测样本不计入此处Backtest samples are excluded
冻结预测总数Frozen forecasts22线上发布事件Live publication events
严格外样本图表Strict out-of-sample chart
默认聚焦近期窗口；完整历史中的疫情结构突变不应遮蔽当前走势。The default view focuses on recent history so pandemic structural breaks do not obscure the current path.
实现目标与策略预测Realized targets and policy forecastBaseline[last]