利率模块Rates Module
日频Daily
利率与曲线Rates & Curve
DGS10DGS2T10Y2Y
观察利率环境、政策路径与曲线信号。Monitor the rates regime, policy path, and curve signals.
进入工作面Open Surface深读仪表盘Deep-Read Dashboard
宏观信号仪表盘Macro Dashboard
这一页先给出统一的月度配置摘要，再围绕日频、周频、月频三组信号展开深读，适合从月度判断切换到结构化下钻。This page opens with a unified monthly allocation summary and then drills into daily, weekly, and monthly groups for structured deep reading.
当前周期概况Current Cycle Summary
更新于 2026-09-12 09:30Updated 2026-09-12 09:30
7 个正式指标7 published indicators当期实时更新Current-cycle live update目标契约 + 嵌套时序验证 + 基线闸门Target contracts + nested time-series validation + baseline gates
先用月度配置摘要形成统一判断，再按日频、周频、月频下钻深读，避免把发布时间差异误读成异常。Start with the monthly allocation summary for a unified view, then drill into daily, weekly, and monthly signals without mistaking release differences for anomalies.
月度配置摘要Monthly Allocation Summary
将公开指标统一到当前决策月，便于月度资产配置、投委会汇报与跨资产讨论。Normalize public indicators to the current decision month for allocation reviews, committee reporting, and cross-asset discussion.
已更新Updated按官方节奏待发布Awaiting scheduled release缺失Missing
这一层将公开指标统一到当前决策月，便于月度资产配置与投委会式阅读；下方混频观察面继续保留真实发布节奏与领先/滞后关系。This layer normalizes public indicators to the current decision month for allocation and committee-style reading, while the mixed-cadence surface below preserves real release rhythm and lead-lag relationships.
| 指标Indicator | 本期使用值Current cycle | 下一目标预测Next target forecast | 来源频率 / 观测Source cadence / Observation | 官方发布Official release | 状态Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
核心PCE物价指数Core PCE Price IndexPCEPILFE | 2.94%首发冻结月环比年化（模型目标）Frozen first-release monthly SAAR (model target) | 2.94%现时预测 · 目标 2026-08-31Nowcast · Target 2026-08-31 | 月频Monthly观测 2026-07-01Observed 2026-07-01 | 2026-08-26按官方节奏Official cadence | 按官方节奏待发布Awaiting scheduled release当前决策月内尚无新正式值，但这符合该指标的正常发布时间。No new official value has been released in the current decision month yet, which is normal for this indicator. |
非农就业人数Nonfarm PayrollsPAYEMS | +162k首发冻结月度新增（模型目标）Frozen first-release monthly change (model target) | +107k预测 · 目标 2026-09-30Forecast · Target 2026-09-30 | 月频Monthly观测 2026-08-01Observed 2026-08-01 | 2026-09-04按官方节奏Official cadence | 按官方节奏待发布Awaiting scheduled release当前决策月内尚无新正式值，但这符合该指标的正常发布时间。No new official value has been released in the current decision month yet, which is normal for this indicator. |
0.20%首发冻结环比增长（模型目标）Frozen first-release monthly growth (model target) | 0.14%现时预测 · 目标 2026-08-31Nowcast · Target 2026-08-31 | 月频Monthly观测 2026-07-01Observed 2026-07-01 | 2026-08-18按官方节奏Official cadence | 按官方节奏待发布Awaiting scheduled release当前决策月内尚无新正式值，但这符合该指标的正常发布时间。No new official value has been released in the current decision month yet, which is normal for this indicator. | |
205,250首发冻结四周均值（模型目标）Frozen first-release four-week average (model target) | 205,250现时预测 · 目标 2026-09-12Nowcast · Target 2026-09-12 | 周频Weekly观测 2026-09-05Observed 2026-09-05 | 2026-09-10按官方节奏Official cadence | 按官方节奏待发布Awaiting scheduled release当前决策月内尚无新正式值，但这符合该指标的正常发布时间。No new official value has been released in the current decision month yet, which is normal for this indicator. | |
4.95%最新收益率水平Latest yield level | 0.00 bp基线变动估计（相对预测锚点）Benchmark change from anchor 隐含目标水平Implied target level: 4.75% 锚点Anchor: 4.75% · 2026-08-31预测 · 目标 2026-09-30Forecast · Target 2026-09-30 | 日频Daily观测 2026-09-10Observed 2026-09-10 | 2026-09-10按官方节奏Official cadence | 已更新Updated本决策月内已有新的正式信息进入站点。A new official release has entered the site during the current decision month. | |
4.56%最新收益率水平Latest yield level | 0.00 bp基线变动估计（相对预测锚点）Benchmark change from anchor 隐含目标水平Implied target level: 4.34% 锚点Anchor: 4.34% · 2026-08-31预测 · 目标 2026-09-30Forecast · Target 2026-09-30 | 日频Daily观测 2026-09-10Observed 2026-09-10 | 2026-09-10按官方节奏Official cadence | 已更新Updated本决策月内已有新的正式信息进入站点。A new official release has entered the site during the current decision month. | |
0.33%最新利差水平Latest spread level | 0.00 bp基线变动估计（相对预测锚点）Benchmark change from anchor 隐含目标水平Implied target level: 0.41% 锚点Anchor: 0.41% · 2026-08-31预测 · 目标 2026-09-30Forecast · Target 2026-09-30 | 日频Daily观测 2026-09-11Observed 2026-09-11 | 2026-09-11按官方节奏Official cadence | 已更新Updated本决策月内已有新的正式信息进入站点。A new official release has entered the site during the current decision month. |
相关工作面Related Surfaces
总览终端负责统一判断，专题看板负责围绕具体主题继续深读。The overview terminal provides the unified read, while thematic surfaces carry the drill-down into specific subjects.
就业模块Employment Module
周频Weekly月频Monthly
劳动力与就业Labor & Employment
ICSAPAYEMS
观察就业边际变化及月度确认过程。Track labor inflections and monthly confirmation.
进入工作面Open Surface通胀模块Inflation Module
月频Monthly
核心通胀Core Inflation
PCEPILFE
观察核心价格压力和通胀回落路径。Monitor underlying price pressure and the disinflation path.
进入工作面Open Surface产出模块Output Module
月频Monthly
工业产出Industrial Output
INDPRO
观察制造业和周期动能的月度确认。Monitor monthly confirmation of manufacturing and cyclical momentum.
进入工作面Open Surface频率导航Cadence Navigation
月度摘要负责统一判断；下面的导航和深读区继续保留日频、周频、月频的真实发布时间差异。The monthly summary provides a unified read, while the navigation and deep-read sections below preserve the real release-timing differences across daily, weekly, and monthly signals.
日频Daily
日频市场信号Daily Market Signals
利率与利差信号更新更快，更适合观察当前交易日附近的变化。Rates and spread signals refresh faster and are best used for observing changes around the current trading window.
4.95%
最新收益率水平Latest yield level
一个月预测目标One-month forecast target
不同指标按各自官方发布节奏更新，月频与周频序列相较日频自然更滞后，这不代表异常。Different indicators refresh on their own official release cadence. Monthly and weekly series naturally lag daily ones, which does not imply an anomaly.
原始最新观测Latest source observation2026-09-10
源数据日期Source date2026-09-10
站点更新Site update2026-09-12 09:30
预测目标日期（非发布时间）Forecast target date (not release time)2026-09-30
最新观测水平Latest observed level4.95%2026-09-10
预测锚点水平Forecast anchor level4.75%2026-08-31
预测变动Forecast change0.00 bp2026-09-30
隐含目标水平Implied target level4.75%按目标合同计算Contract-defined
近期 MAERecent MAE15.42
近期 MASERecent MASE1.000
近期相对基线技能Recent skill0.0%
当前95%区间宽度Current 95% width106.0
全期 MASEFull MASE1.010
全期相对基线技能Full skill-1.0%
2022后 MASEPost-2022 MASE1.000
方向辅助诊断Direction diagnostic35.1%
实现值与严格外样本策略Realized values vs strict OOS policy当前服务：Baseline[zero]Current serving: Baseline[zero]
0 bp 是零变化基线的正式预测：相对 4.75% 的月末锚点不变，隐含目标水平为 4.75%。图中连续零段表示当时基线赢得逐期选模，不是缺失值补零；基准线只在与策略预测不同的区段显示。0 bp is the governed zero-change benchmark forecast: unchanged from the 4.75% month-end anchor, implying 4.75%. Consecutive zero segments mean the benchmark won point-in-time model selection, not that missing values were filled with zero. The benchmark line is shown only where it differs from the policy forecast.
4.56%
最新收益率水平Latest yield level
一个月预测目标One-month forecast target
不同指标按各自官方发布节奏更新，月频与周频序列相较日频自然更滞后，这不代表异常。Different indicators refresh on their own official release cadence. Monthly and weekly series naturally lag daily ones, which does not imply an anomaly.
原始最新观测Latest source observation2026-09-10
源数据日期Source date2026-09-10
站点更新Site update2026-09-12 09:30
预测目标日期（非发布时间）Forecast target date (not release time)2026-09-30
最新观测水平Latest observed level4.56%2026-09-10
预测锚点水平Forecast anchor level4.34%2026-08-31
预测变动Forecast change0.00 bp2026-09-30
隐含目标水平Implied target level4.34%按目标合同计算Contract-defined
近期 MAERecent MAE15.44
近期 MASERecent MASE0.957
近期相对基线技能Recent skill4.3%
当前95%区间宽度Current 95% width112.0
全期 MASEFull MASE1.040
全期相对基线技能Full skill-4.0%
2022后 MASEPost-2022 MASE0.988
方向辅助诊断Direction diagnostic36.5%
实现值与严格外样本策略Realized values vs strict OOS policy当前服务：Baseline[zero]Current serving: Baseline[zero]
0 bp 是零变化基线的正式预测：相对 4.34% 的月末锚点不变，隐含目标水平为 4.34%。图中连续零段表示当时基线赢得逐期选模，不是缺失值补零；基准线只在与策略预测不同的区段显示。0 bp is the governed zero-change benchmark forecast: unchanged from the 4.34% month-end anchor, implying 4.34%. Consecutive zero segments mean the benchmark won point-in-time model selection, not that missing values were filled with zero. The benchmark line is shown only where it differs from the policy forecast.
0.33%
最新利差水平Latest spread level
一个月预测目标One-month forecast target
不同指标按各自官方发布节奏更新，月频与周频序列相较日频自然更滞后，这不代表异常。Different indicators refresh on their own official release cadence. Monthly and weekly series naturally lag daily ones, which does not imply an anomaly.
原始最新观测Latest source observation2026-09-11
源数据日期Source date2026-09-11
站点更新Site update2026-09-12 09:30
预测目标日期（非发布时间）Forecast target date (not release time)2026-09-30
最新观测水平Latest observed level0.33%2026-09-11
预测锚点水平Forecast anchor level0.41%2026-08-31
预测变动Forecast change0.00 bp2026-09-30
隐含目标水平Implied target level0.41%按目标合同计算Contract-defined
利差协调Spread reconciliation0.00 bp阈值 5 bpThreshold 5 bp
近期 MAERecent MAE10.57
近期 MASERecent MASE1.062
近期相对基线技能Recent skill-6.2%
当前95%区间宽度Current 95% width66.0
全期 MASEFull MASE1.018
全期相对基线技能Full skill-1.8%
2022后 MASEPost-2022 MASE1.035
方向辅助诊断Direction diagnostic33.1%
实现值与严格外样本策略Realized values vs strict OOS policy当前服务：Baseline[zero]Current serving: Baseline[zero]
0 bp 是零变化基线的正式预测：相对 0.41% 的月末锚点不变，隐含目标水平为 0.41%。图中连续零段表示当时基线赢得逐期选模，不是缺失值补零；基准线只在与策略预测不同的区段显示。0 bp is the governed zero-change benchmark forecast: unchanged from the 0.41% month-end anchor, implying 0.41%. Consecutive zero segments mean the benchmark won point-in-time model selection, not that missing values were filled with zero. The benchmark line is shown only where it differs from the policy forecast.
周频Weekly
周频劳动力信号Weekly Labor Signals
周度劳动力指标位于日频与月频之间，用来跟踪就业景气的边际变化。Weekly labor indicators sit between daily and monthly series and help track marginal changes in employment conditions.
205,250
首发冻结四周均值（模型目标）Frozen first-release four-week average (model target)
一周预测目标One-week forecast target
不同指标按各自官方发布节奏更新，月频与周频序列相较日频自然更滞后，这不代表异常。Different indicators refresh on their own official release cadence. Monthly and weekly series naturally lag daily ones, which does not imply an anomaly.
原始最新观测Latest source observation2026-09-05
官方发布日期Official release date2026-09-10
站点更新Site update2026-09-12 09:30
预测目标日期（非发布时间）Forecast target date (not release time)2026-09-12
当前版本四周均值Current-vintage four-week average206,000会随后续修订变化May change with later revisions
最新原始周值Latest raw weekly value206,0002026-09-05
最近已实现模型目标Latest realized model target205,2502026-09-05
下一期基线估计Next benchmark estimate205,2502026-09-12
近期 MAERecent MAE2379.81
近期 MASERecent MASE1.000
近期相对基线技能Recent skill0.0%
当前95%区间宽度Current 95% width33000.0
全期 MASEFull MASE1.006
全期相对基线技能Full skill-0.6%
2022后 MASEPost-2022 MASE1.000
方向辅助诊断Direction diagnostic53.4%
实现值与严格外样本策略Realized values vs strict OOS policy当前服务：Baseline[last]Current serving: Baseline[last]
月频Monthly
月频宏观基本面Monthly Macro Fundamentals
通胀、就业与工业生产等基本面指标按月发布，因此天然比日频和周频序列更滞后。Inflation, labor, and production fundamentals are released monthly and therefore naturally lag daily and weekly series.
2.94%
首发冻结月环比年化（模型目标）Frozen first-release monthly SAAR (model target)
一个月预测目标One-month forecast target
不同指标按各自官方发布节奏更新，月频与周频序列相较日频自然更滞后，这不代表异常。Different indicators refresh on their own official release cadence. Monthly and weekly series naturally lag daily ones, which does not imply an anomaly.
原始最新观测Latest source observation2026-07-01
官方发布日期Official release date2026-08-26
站点更新Site update2026-09-12 09:30
预测目标日期（非发布时间）Forecast target date (not release time)2026-08-31
最近已实现模型目标Latest realized model target2.94%2026-07-31
下一期基线估计Next benchmark estimate2.94%2026-08-31
近期 MAERecent MAE1.18
近期 MASERecent MASE1.000
近期相对基线技能Recent skill0.0%
当前95%区间宽度Current 95% width6.6
全期 MASEFull MASE1.058
全期相对基线技能Full skill-5.8%
2022后 MASEPost-2022 MASE1.000
方向辅助诊断Direction diagnostic59.1%
实现值与严格外样本策略Realized values vs strict OOS policy当前服务：Baseline[last]Current serving: Baseline[last]
+162k
首发冻结月度新增（模型目标）Frozen first-release monthly change (model target)
一个月预测目标One-month forecast target
不同指标按各自官方发布节奏更新，月频与周频序列相较日频自然更滞后，这不代表异常。Different indicators refresh on their own official release cadence. Monthly and weekly series naturally lag daily ones, which does not imply an anomaly.
原始最新观测Latest source observation2026-08-01
官方发布日期Official release date2026-09-04
站点更新Site update2026-09-12 09:30
预测目标日期（非发布时间）Forecast target date (not release time)2026-09-30
当前源序列就业水平Current source-series employment level159,0752026-08-01
最近已实现模型目标Latest realized model target+162k2026-08-31
下一期基线估计Next benchmark estimate+107k2026-09-30
近期 MAERecent MAE83.38
近期 MASERecent MASE1.000
近期相对基线技能Recent skill0.0%
当前95%区间宽度Current 95% width510.0
全期 MASEFull MASE0.947
全期相对基线技能Full skill5.3%
2022后 MASEPost-2022 MASE1.143
方向辅助诊断Direction diagnostic50.0%
实现值与严格外样本策略Realized values vs strict OOS policy当前服务：Baseline[stable_shrinkage_12]Current serving: Baseline[stable_shrinkage_12]
0.20%
首发冻结环比增长（模型目标）Frozen first-release monthly growth (model target)
一个月预测目标One-month forecast target
不同指标按各自官方发布节奏更新，月频与周频序列相较日频自然更滞后，这不代表异常。Different indicators refresh on their own official release cadence. Monthly and weekly series naturally lag daily ones, which does not imply an anomaly.
原始最新观测Latest source observation2026-07-01
官方发布日期Official release date2026-08-18
站点更新Site update2026-09-12 09:30
预测目标日期（非发布时间）Forecast target date (not release time)2026-08-31
最近已实现模型目标Latest realized model target0.20%2026-07-31
下一期基线估计Next benchmark estimate0.14%2026-08-31
近期 MAERecent MAE0.34
近期 MASERecent MASE1.000
近期相对基线技能Recent skill0.0%
当前95%区间宽度Current 95% width2.1
全期 MASEFull MASE1.069
全期相对基线技能Full skill-6.9%
2022后 MASEPost-2022 MASE1.000
近期点预测方向Recent point direction8.3%
实现值与严格外样本策略Realized values vs strict OOS policy当前服务：Baseline[rolling_median_12]Current serving: Baseline[rolling_median_12]