统一预测基座Unified Forecast Base
宏观经济指标预测与研究Macro Indicators, Forecasts & Research
首页只保留统一摘要与模块入口；模型诊断、图表和历史轨迹在各领域模块独立维护。The homepage keeps the shared summary and domain entry points; diagnostics, charts, and history are maintained inside each domain module.
七指标预测摘要Seven-Indicator Forecast Summary
统一比较最新观测、目标口径、预测期限、服务资格和官方发布状态。Compare latest observations, target definitions, horizons, service qualification, and official-release status on one surface.
已更新Updated按官方节奏待发布Awaiting scheduled release缺失Missing
这一层将公开指标统一到当前决策月，便于月度资产配置与投委会式阅读；下方混频观察面继续保留真实发布节奏与领先/滞后关系。This layer normalizes public indicators to the current decision month for allocation and committee-style reading, while the mixed-cadence surface below preserves real release rhythm and lead-lag relationships.
| 指标Indicator | 本期使用值Current cycle | 下一目标预测Next target forecast | 来源频率 / 观测Source cadence / Observation | 官方发布Official release | 状态Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
核心PCE物价指数Core PCE Price IndexPCEPILFE | 2.94%首发冻结月环比年化（模型目标）Frozen first-release monthly SAAR (model target) | 2.94%现时预测 · 目标 2026-08-31Nowcast · Target 2026-08-31 | 月频Monthly观测 2026-07-01Observed 2026-07-01 | 2026-08-26按官方节奏Official cadence | 按官方节奏待发布Awaiting scheduled release当前决策月内尚无新正式值，但这符合该指标的正常发布时间。No new official value has been released in the current decision month yet, which is normal for this indicator. |
非农就业人数Nonfarm PayrollsPAYEMS | +162k首发冻结月度新增（模型目标）Frozen first-release monthly change (model target) | +107k预测 · 目标 2026-09-30Forecast · Target 2026-09-30 | 月频Monthly观测 2026-08-01Observed 2026-08-01 | 2026-09-04按官方节奏Official cadence | 按官方节奏待发布Awaiting scheduled release当前决策月内尚无新正式值，但这符合该指标的正常发布时间。No new official value has been released in the current decision month yet, which is normal for this indicator. |
0.20%首发冻结环比增长（模型目标）Frozen first-release monthly growth (model target) | 0.14%现时预测 · 目标 2026-08-31Nowcast · Target 2026-08-31 | 月频Monthly观测 2026-07-01Observed 2026-07-01 | 2026-08-18按官方节奏Official cadence | 按官方节奏待发布Awaiting scheduled release当前决策月内尚无新正式值，但这符合该指标的正常发布时间。No new official value has been released in the current decision month yet, which is normal for this indicator. | |
205,250首发冻结四周均值（模型目标）Frozen first-release four-week average (model target) | 205,250现时预测 · 目标 2026-09-12Nowcast · Target 2026-09-12 | 周频Weekly观测 2026-09-05Observed 2026-09-05 | 2026-09-10按官方节奏Official cadence | 按官方节奏待发布Awaiting scheduled release当前决策月内尚无新正式值，但这符合该指标的正常发布时间。No new official value has been released in the current decision month yet, which is normal for this indicator. | |
4.95%最新收益率水平Latest yield level | 0.00 bp基线变动估计（相对预测锚点）Benchmark change from anchor 隐含目标水平Implied target level: 4.75% 锚点Anchor: 4.75% · 2026-08-31预测 · 目标 2026-09-30Forecast · Target 2026-09-30 | 日频Daily观测 2026-09-10Observed 2026-09-10 | 2026-09-10按官方节奏Official cadence | 已更新Updated本决策月内已有新的正式信息进入站点。A new official release has entered the site during the current decision month. | |
4.56%最新收益率水平Latest yield level | 0.00 bp基线变动估计（相对预测锚点）Benchmark change from anchor 隐含目标水平Implied target level: 4.34% 锚点Anchor: 4.34% · 2026-08-31预测 · 目标 2026-09-30Forecast · Target 2026-09-30 | 日频Daily观测 2026-09-10Observed 2026-09-10 | 2026-09-10按官方节奏Official cadence | 已更新Updated本决策月内已有新的正式信息进入站点。A new official release has entered the site during the current decision month. | |
0.33%最新利差水平Latest spread level | 0.00 bp基线变动估计（相对预测锚点）Benchmark change from anchor 隐含目标水平Implied target level: 0.41% 锚点Anchor: 0.41% · 2026-08-31预测 · 目标 2026-09-30Forecast · Target 2026-09-30 | 日频Daily观测 2026-09-11Observed 2026-09-11 | 2026-09-11按官方节奏Official cadence | 已更新Updated本决策月内已有新的正式信息进入站点。A new official release has entered the site during the current decision month. |