监测Monitoring2026-09-05
初请原始周值Raw claims week
源序列的最近已观测周值，不等同于四周模型目标。The latest observed source week, distinct from the four-week model target.
206,000就业模块Employment Module
劳动力与就业Labor & Employment
结合周频初请与月频非农，区分实时观察、未公布状态估计和未来预测。Combines weekly claims and monthly payrolls while separating monitoring, unreleased-state estimates, and future forecasts.
信息状态Information states
先分清数据处于哪一种状态Separate the information states
每日站点更新不会自动产生新的独立预测事件；只有在目标期和信息截点都满足条件后，记录才进入相应状态。A daily site refresh does not create a new independent forecast event; state depends on the target period and information cutoff.
观察就业边际变化及月度确认过程。Track labor inflections and monthly confirmation.
监测Monitoring2026-08-01
非农源序列水平Payroll source level
PAYEMS 的源序列水平；模型预测对象是月度新增，不是这个水平。The PAYEMS source level; the model target is monthly change, not this level.
159,075已公布Released2026-09-05
初请四周移动平均Claims four-week average
按当前版本计算的四周均值；缺少完整窗口时显示 N/A。Current-vintage four-week average; incomplete windows remain N/A.
206,000已公布Released2026-08-31
非农首发冻结月增量Frozen first-release change
使用同一首发版本的当月与上月水平计算，避免跨版本相减。Computed within one first-release vintage to avoid cross-vintage subtraction.
+162k现时预测Nowcasting2026-09-12
初请下一周目标Next claims target
下一周四周均值预测；区间只在已有足够历史残差时标为已校准。Next-week four-week-average forecast; intervals are calibrated only with enough prior residuals.
205,250未来预测Forecasting2026-09-30
非农下一月新增Next payroll change
下一月新增就业预测；官方首发值到达后才进入冻结回测。Next-month employment change; backtest settlement waits for the official first release.
+107k初请近期 MASEClaims recent MASE1.000
非农近期 MASEPayroll recent MASE1.000
初请模型状态Claims model status基线保护Baseline guard
非农模型状态Payroll model status基线保护Baseline guard
周频Weekly
周频劳动力信号Weekly Labor Signals
周度劳动力指标位于日频与月频之间，用来跟踪就业景气的边际变化。Weekly labor indicators sit between daily and monthly series and help track marginal changes in employment conditions.
205,250
首发冻结四周均值（模型目标）Frozen first-release four-week average (model target)
一周预测目标One-week forecast target
不同指标按各自官方发布节奏更新，月频与周频序列相较日频自然更滞后，这不代表异常。Different indicators refresh on their own official release cadence. Monthly and weekly series naturally lag daily ones, which does not imply an anomaly.
原始最新观测Latest source observation2026-09-05
官方发布日期Official release date2026-09-10
站点更新Site update2026-09-12 09:30
预测目标日期（非发布时间）Forecast target date (not release time)2026-09-12
当前版本四周均值Current-vintage four-week average206,000会随后续修订变化May change with later revisions
最新原始周值Latest raw weekly value206,0002026-09-05
最近已实现模型目标Latest realized model target205,2502026-09-05
下一期基线估计Next benchmark estimate205,2502026-09-12
近期 MAERecent MAE2379.81
近期 MASERecent MASE1.000
近期相对基线技能Recent skill0.0%
当前95%区间宽度Current 95% width33000.0
全期 MASEFull MASE1.006
全期相对基线技能Full skill-0.6%
2022后 MASEPost-2022 MASE1.000
方向辅助诊断Direction diagnostic53.4%
实现值与严格外样本策略Realized values vs strict OOS policy当前服务：Baseline[last]Current serving: Baseline[last]
月频Monthly
月频宏观基本面Monthly Macro Fundamentals
通胀、就业与工业生产等基本面指标按月发布，因此天然比日频和周频序列更滞后。Inflation, labor, and production fundamentals are released monthly and therefore naturally lag daily and weekly series.
+162k
首发冻结月度新增（模型目标）Frozen first-release monthly change (model target)
一个月预测目标One-month forecast target
不同指标按各自官方发布节奏更新，月频与周频序列相较日频自然更滞后，这不代表异常。Different indicators refresh on their own official release cadence. Monthly and weekly series naturally lag daily ones, which does not imply an anomaly.
原始最新观测Latest source observation2026-08-01
官方发布日期Official release date2026-09-04
站点更新Site update2026-09-12 09:30
预测目标日期（非发布时间）Forecast target date (not release time)2026-09-30
当前源序列就业水平Current source-series employment level159,0752026-08-01
最近已实现模型目标Latest realized model target+162k2026-08-31
下一期基线估计Next benchmark estimate+107k2026-09-30
近期 MAERecent MAE83.38
近期 MASERecent MASE1.000
近期相对基线技能Recent skill0.0%
当前95%区间宽度Current 95% width510.0
全期 MASEFull MASE0.947
全期相对基线技能Full skill5.3%
2022后 MASEPost-2022 MASE1.143
方向辅助诊断Direction diagnostic50.0%
实现值与严格外样本策略Realized values vs strict OOS policy当前服务：Baseline[stable_shrinkage_12]Current serving: Baseline[stable_shrinkage_12]