MonitoringMonitoring
最新首发月环比Latest first-release monthly growth0.20%
已记录Recorded产出模块Output module
工业生产Industrial Production
把工业生产拆成三个不同问题：当前已发布什么、下一个官方目标期的现时估计是什么、研究模型是否已经通过严格外样本门控。Separate three questions: what is currently released, what the next official target period is estimated to be, and whether a research model has passed strict out-of-sample gates.
三层工作面Three operating layers
Monitoring、Nowcasting、Forecasting 不共享同一个状态标签。Monitoring, nowcasting, and forecasting do not share one status label.
NowcastingNowcasting
下一目标期估计Next target estimate0.14%
基线保护Baseline guardedForecastingForecasting
模型资格Model qualification基线Baseline
未证明优势No edge proven目标合同与信息边界Target contract and information boundary
首发冻结表现和当前修订历史分开保存；缺少同版本分母时不构造首发目标。First-release frozen performance is kept separate from revised history; no first-release target is constructed without the same-vintage denominator.
目标变量Target工业生产月度环比对数增长Industrial production monthly log growth
单位Unitpercent_mom
预测期限Horizonone_month
首发口径Vintagealfred_initial_release
信息截止Information cutoff2026-09-12 00:00
数据状态Data status实时抓取
模型与回测资格Model and backtest qualification
候选模型必须同时通过全样本、近期窗口和发布日期感知的嵌套滚动验证。Candidates must pass full-sample, recent-window, and release-aware nested rolling validation.
1.069
1.000
95.8%
桥接输入审计清单Bridge-input audit checklist
这些变量是候选输入，不等于已经被模型使用或已经产生预测优势。每个值必须在预测时点已经发布。These are candidate inputs, not proof that the model used them or gained an edge. Each value must have been released by the forecast cutoff.
| 输入Input | 经济角色Role | 资格状态Qualification |
|---|---|---|
| 制造业工时Manufacturing hours Manufacturing_Hours | 劳动投入Labor input | 需经发布日期对齐后进入候选回测Requires release alignment before candidate backtesting |
| 产能利用率Capacity utilization Capacity_Util | 供给约束Supply constraint | 需经发布日期对齐后进入候选回测Requires release alignment before candidate backtesting |
| 能源价格Energy prices WTI_Oil | 成本压力Cost pressure | 需经发布日期对齐后进入候选回测Requires release alignment before candidate backtesting |
| 制造业信心Manufacturing confidence Manufacturing_Confidence | 调查信号Survey signal | 需经发布日期对齐后进入候选回测Requires release alignment before candidate backtesting |
| 耐用品订单Durable-goods orders Durable_Goods | 需求管道Demand pipeline | 需经发布日期对齐后进入候选回测Requires release alignment before candidate backtesting |
实现值、预测和基线Realized values, forecast, and benchmark
焦点窗口查看近期拐点；全部窗口查看疫情结构突变和长期误差。Use the focus window for recent inflections and the full window for the pandemic break and long-run error.
工业生产月度增长Industrial production monthly growth
Baseline[rolling_median_12]
Baseline[rolling_median_12]
边界与下一步Boundaries and next steps
工业生产覆盖制造业、采矿业和公用事业，但不能单独代表服务业需求或完整 GDP。Industrial production covers manufacturing, mining, and utilities, but does not represent services demand or total GDP on its own.