Economic Forecasting宏观经济指标预测与研究Macro Indicators, Forecasts & Research
更新于 2026-09-12 09:30:45Updated 2026-09-12 09:30:45
发布历史工作面Release History Workbench

发布历史与公开版本Release History & Public Vintages

把七个公开指标的正式发布时间历史、当前值、前值、下一预测与公开版本轨迹集中到同一工作面。Bring the seven published indicators together on one surface with official release history, current value, prior value, next forecast, and the public vintage trail.

查看节奏工作台Open cadence workbench查看本次变化Open latest batch

工作面概况Workbench overview

本次更新有 3 个公开指标进入当前决策月，其余指标仍按各自官方节奏等待发布。3 published indicators entered the current decision month in this release; the rest are still waiting on their official cadence.

跟踪指标Tracked signals7 个指标7 signals

当前公开范围固定为七个正式指标。The public scope stays fixed at the seven published signals.

本周期已更新Updated this cycle3 个指标3 signals

本次更新有 3 个公开指标进入当前决策月，其余指标仍按各自官方节奏等待发布。3 published indicators entered the current decision month in this release; the rest are still waiting on their official cadence.

按节奏待发布Awaiting cadence4 个指标4 signals

这些指标仍在各自的正常官方发布时间窗口内等待下一次正式值。These signals are still inside their normal official release windows while waiting for the next print.

当前主信号Lead signal10Y-2Y美债利差10Y-2Y Treasury Spread

10Y-2Y美债利差 的源序列观测水平较上一期下行 0.06%。The source-series observation for 10Y-2Y Treasury Spread fell by 0.06% versus the prior period.

筛选、分享与导出Filters, sharing, and export

统一用 query string 保存 signal / view 视图，可直接复制当前链接、导出当前表格，或打印为 PDF 快照。Use query string to preserve the signal and view selection, then share the current URL, export the active table, or print a PDF snapshot.

指标Signal
视图View

我的关注清单与本地提醒My watchlist and local alerts

把最重要的公开指标保存在本地关注清单里，并按 watchlist / priority / all 三种模式查看当前最该盯住的信号。这里不做服务端推送，只做本地工作台提醒。Keep the most important public indicators in a local watchlist and review them through watchlist, priority, or all modes. This surface stays local-only and does not introduce server-side alert delivery.

提醒范围Alert scope
关注清单还是空的Your watchlist is empty

从下方信号卡片或单指标终端把指标加入关注清单后，这里会自动显示本地提醒。Add signals from the cards below or from any single-indicator terminal, and this section will immediately show the local alert surface.

T10Y2Y日频Daily

10Y-2Y美债利差10Y-2Y Treasury Spread

已更新Updated

本决策月内已有新的正式信息进入站点。A new official release has entered the site during the current decision month.

最近正式值Latest official
0.33%

2026-09-11

下一预测Next forecast
+0.0 bp

2026-09-14

紧迫度Urgency
HIGH

10Y-2Y美债利差 的源序列观测水平较上一期下行 0.06%。The source-series observation for 10Y-2Y Treasury Spread fell by 0.06% versus the prior period.

进入单指标终端Open indicator terminal
DGS10日频Daily

10年期美债收益率10Y Treasury Yield

已更新Updated

本决策月内已有新的正式信息进入站点。A new official release has entered the site during the current decision month.

最近正式值Latest official
4.95%

2026-09-10

下一预测Next forecast
+0.0 bp

2026-09-14

紧迫度Urgency
HIGH

10年期美债收益率 的源序列观测水平较上一期上行 0.12%。The source-series observation for 10Y Treasury Yield rose by 0.12% versus the prior period.

进入单指标终端Open indicator terminal
DGS2日频Daily

2年期美债收益率2Y Treasury Yield

已更新Updated

本决策月内已有新的正式信息进入站点。A new official release has entered the site during the current decision month.

最近正式值Latest official
4.56%

2026-09-10

下一预测Next forecast
+0.0 bp

2026-09-14

紧迫度Urgency
HIGH

2年期美债收益率 的源序列观测水平较上一期上行 0.13%。The source-series observation for 2Y Treasury Yield rose by 0.13% versus the prior period.

进入单指标终端Open indicator terminal
INDPRO月频Monthly

工业生产Industrial Production

按官方节奏待发布Awaiting scheduled release

当前决策月内尚无新正式值，但这符合该指标的正常发布时间。No new official value has been released in the current decision month yet, which is normal for this indicator.

最近正式值Latest official
102.99

2026-08-18

下一预测Next forecast
0.14%

2026-09-18

紧迫度Urgency
MEDIUM

工业生产 本周期尚无新的模型目标实现值，当前仍按官方发布节奏等待。Industrial Production has no new realized model target this cycle and is waiting on the official release cadence.

进入单指标终端Open indicator terminal
ICSA周频Weekly

初请失业金人数Initial Jobless Claims

按官方节奏待发布Awaiting scheduled release

当前决策月内尚无新正式值，但这符合该指标的正常发布时间。No new official value has been released in the current decision month yet, which is normal for this indicator.

最近正式值Latest official
206,000

2026-09-10

下一预测Next forecast
205,250

2026-09-17

紧迫度Urgency
MEDIUM

初请失业金人数 本周期尚无新的模型目标实现值，当前仍按官方发布节奏等待。Initial Jobless Claims has no new realized model target this cycle and is waiting on the official release cadence.

进入单指标终端Open indicator terminal
PCEPILFE月频Monthly

核心PCE物价指数Core PCE Price Index

按官方节奏待发布Awaiting scheduled release

当前决策月内尚无新正式值，但这符合该指标的正常发布时间。No new official value has been released in the current decision month yet, which is normal for this indicator.

最近正式值Latest official
130.66

2026-08-26

下一预测Next forecast
2.94%

2026-09-30

紧迫度Urgency
LOW

核心PCE物价指数 本周期尚无新的模型目标实现值，当前仍按官方发布节奏等待。Core PCE Price Index has no new realized model target this cycle and is waiting on the official release cadence.

进入单指标终端Open indicator terminal
PAYEMS月频Monthly

非农就业人数Nonfarm Payrolls

按官方节奏待发布Awaiting scheduled release

当前决策月内尚无新正式值，但这符合该指标的正常发布时间。No new official value has been released in the current decision month yet, which is normal for this indicator.

最近正式值Latest official
159,075

2026-09-04

下一预测Next forecast
+107k

2026-10-02

紧迫度Urgency
LOW

非农就业人数 本周期尚无新的模型目标实现值，当前仍按官方发布节奏等待。Nonfarm Payrolls has no new realized model target this cycle and is waiting on the official release cadence.

进入单指标终端Open indicator terminal

多信号对比Signal compare

把最多 4 个公开指标放进同一个对比表里，统一查看最近正式值、前值、下一预测、最近发布时间和下一发布时间。当前对比列表会写入 URL 和 localStorage。Keep up to four published signals in one compare table to review the latest official value, prior value, next forecast, latest release date, and next release date in one place. The active compare set is stored in both the URL and localStorage.

还没有加入任何对比信号No signals in compare yet

从本页信号卡片或单指标终端把指标加入对比后，这里会自动生成多信号对比表。Add signals to compare from this page or from any indicator terminal, and the table below will update automatically.

指标Signal最近正式值Latest official前值Previous value下一预测Next forecast最近发布时间Latest release下一发布时间Next release状态Status
核心PCE物价指数Core PCE Price IndexPCEPILFE
130.661.59%2.94%2026-08-262026-09-30按官方节奏待发布Awaiting scheduled release
非农就业人数Nonfarm PayrollsPAYEMS
159,075-23k+107k2026-09-042026-10-02按官方节奏待发布Awaiting scheduled release
工业生产Industrial ProductionINDPRO
102.990.08%0.14%2026-08-182026-09-18按官方节奏待发布Awaiting scheduled release
10年期美债收益率10Y Treasury YieldDGS10
4.95%4.83%+0.0 bp2026-09-102026-09-14已更新Updated
2年期美债收益率2Y Treasury YieldDGS2
4.56%4.43%+0.0 bp2026-09-102026-09-14已更新Updated
10Y-2Y美债利差10Y-2Y Treasury SpreadT10Y2Y
0.33%0.39%+0.0 bp2026-09-112026-09-14已更新Updated
初请失业金人数Initial Jobless ClaimsICSA
206,000206,000205,2502026-09-102026-09-17按官方节奏待发布Awaiting scheduled release

如何阅读官方发布时间与公开版本How to read official releases and public vintages

这一页把官方发布时间历史和公开站点稳定版本轨迹放在一起，但两者回答的是不同问题。前者回答数据何时由官方发布，后者回答公开站点何时把该版本真正展示给外部用户。This page keeps official release history and public-site vintages together, but they answer different questions. One tells you when the source was officially released; the other tells you when that version became visible on the public site.

Official releaseOfficial release

官方机构公布该读数的时间。它定义正式值何时进入公共信息集。The time when the source institution published the print. It defines when the official value entered the public information set.

Observed atObserved at

该正式值对应的观测期或观测点，例如月度样本期或周度终值日期。The observed period or point associated with the print, such as a monthly sample period or week-ending date.

Site updatedSite updated

公开站点这次完整发布实际完成的时间，用来说明用户何时在站点上看到新版本。The time when the public site completed the corresponding release, showing when users could actually see the new version.

Public vintagePublic vintage

这里只跟踪公开站点的稳定发布快照，不等价于完整数据库修订链，也不声称覆盖所有内部重算版本。This layer tracks stable public-site snapshots only. It is not a full database revision chain and does not claim to cover every internal recomputation.

缓存兜底Cached fallback

当上游抓数临时退化时，站点可能沿用上一版已验证的公开稳定值。它不等于新的 official release，只表示本轮发布沿用了已验证缓存。When upstream fetching degrades temporarily, the site may carry forward the last verified public value. That does not equal a new official release; it means the current publication reused a verified cache.

发布可信度状态Publication reliability states

accepted_only 表示只有可接受的模型统计警告；degraded_but_published 表示站点已发布，但部分数据抓取退化并沿用了稳定缓存；review_required 表示需要人工复核。accepted_only means only acceptable model warnings were recorded; degraded_but_published means the site was published with some fetch degradation and verified cache fallback; review_required means the release needs manual review.

正式发布时间历史Official release history

默认展示七个公开指标中当前所选信号的正式发布时间历史；切换到“公开版本视图”时，会把同一组正式发布时间历史作为当前可见的版本轨迹。The default view shows the official release history for the selected signal. Switching to the public-vintage view keeps the same public release trail while framing it as the currently visible vintage path.

PCEPILFE月频Monthly

核心PCE物价指数Core PCE Price Index

核心PCE物价指数 当前沿用 2.94% 作为最近模型目标实现值；本周期尚无新值可得，上一期为 1.59%。Core PCE Price Index is still carrying 2.94% as the latest realized model target; no new value is available and the prior period was 1.59%.

进入单指标终端Open single-indicator terminal
最近正式值Latest official value
130.66

2026-08-26

前值Previous official value
1.59%

核心PCE物价指数 本周期尚无新的模型目标实现值，当前仍按官方发布节奏等待。Core PCE Price Index has no new realized model target this cycle and is waiting on the official release cadence.

下一预测Next forecast
2.94%

2026-09-30

下一发布时间Next release
2026-09-30 00:00

18 天后In 18 days

正式发布时间历史表Official release table

这张表按最近到更早排序，固定保留最近 12 次正式发布时间、观测期和正式值。This table stays sorted from latest to older prints and keeps the latest 12 official release dates, observed periods, and official values.

正式发布时间Official release观测期Observed at正式值Official value当前周期标记Cycle flag
2026-08-262026-07-312.94%历史正式值Historical print
2026-07-302026-06-301.59%历史正式值Historical print
2026-06-252026-05-313.83%历史正式值Historical print
2026-05-282026-04-302.86%历史正式值Historical print
2026-04-302026-03-313.51%历史正式值Historical print
2026-04-092026-02-284.39%历史正式值Historical print
2026-03-132026-01-314.35%历史正式值Historical print
2026-02-202025-12-314.26%历史正式值Historical print
2026-01-222025-11-301.92%历史正式值Historical print
2026-01-222025-10-312.49%历史正式值Historical print
2025-12-052025-09-302.37%历史正式值Historical print
2025-09-262025-08-312.72%历史正式值Historical print
PAYEMS月频Monthly

非农就业人数Nonfarm Payrolls

非农就业人数 当前沿用 +162k 作为最近模型目标实现值；本周期尚无新值可得，上一期为 -23k。Nonfarm Payrolls is still carrying +162k as the latest realized model target; no new value is available and the prior period was -23k.

进入单指标终端Open single-indicator terminal
最近正式值Latest official value
159,075

2026-09-04

前值Previous official value
-23k

非农就业人数 本周期尚无新的模型目标实现值，当前仍按官方发布节奏等待。Nonfarm Payrolls has no new realized model target this cycle and is waiting on the official release cadence.

下一预测Next forecast
+107k

2026-10-02

下一发布时间Next release
2026-10-02 00:00

20 天后In 20 days

正式发布时间历史表Official release table

这张表按最近到更早排序，固定保留最近 12 次正式发布时间、观测期和正式值。This table stays sorted from latest to older prints and keeps the latest 12 official release dates, observed periods, and official values.

正式发布时间Official release观测期Observed at正式值Official value当前周期标记Cycle flag
2026-09-042026-08-31+162k历史正式值Historical print
2026-08-072026-07-31-23k历史正式值Historical print
2026-07-022026-06-30+57k历史正式值Historical print
2026-06-052026-05-31+172k历史正式值Historical print
2026-05-082026-04-30+115k历史正式值Historical print
2026-04-032026-03-31+178k历史正式值Historical print
2026-03-062026-02-28-92k历史正式值Historical print
2026-02-112026-01-31+130k历史正式值Historical print
2026-01-092025-12-31+50k历史正式值Historical print
2025-12-162025-11-30+64k历史正式值Historical print
2025-12-162025-10-31-105k历史正式值Historical print
2025-11-202025-09-30+119k历史正式值Historical print
INDPRO月频Monthly

工业生产Industrial Production

工业生产 当前沿用 0.20% 作为最近模型目标实现值；本周期尚无新值可得，上一期为 0.08%。Industrial Production is still carrying 0.20% as the latest realized model target; no new value is available and the prior period was 0.08%.

进入单指标终端Open single-indicator terminal
最近正式值Latest official value
102.99

2026-08-18

前值Previous official value
0.08%

工业生产 本周期尚无新的模型目标实现值，当前仍按官方发布节奏等待。Industrial Production has no new realized model target this cycle and is waiting on the official release cadence.

下一预测Next forecast
0.14%

2026-09-18

下一发布时间Next release
2026-09-18 00:00

6 天后In 6 days

正式发布时间历史表Official release table

这张表按最近到更早排序，固定保留最近 12 次正式发布时间、观测期和正式值。This table stays sorted from latest to older prints and keeps the latest 12 official release dates, observed periods, and official values.

正式发布时间Official release观测期Observed at正式值Official value当前周期标记Cycle flag
2026-08-182026-07-310.20%历史正式值Historical print
2026-07-172026-06-300.08%历史正式值Historical print
2026-06-152026-05-310.14%历史正式值Historical print
2026-05-152026-04-300.68%历史正式值Historical print
2026-04-162026-03-31-0.54%历史正式值Historical print
2026-03-162026-02-280.15%历史正式值Historical print
2026-02-182026-01-310.70%历史正式值Historical print
2026-01-162025-12-310.36%历史正式值Historical print
2025-12-232025-11-300.17%历史正式值Historical print
2025-12-232025-10-31-0.06%历史正式值Historical print
2025-12-032025-09-300.10%历史正式值Historical print
2025-09-162025-08-310.10%历史正式值Historical print
DGS10日频Daily

10年期美债收益率10Y Treasury Yield

10年期美债收益率 本周期已更新，最新源序列观测水平 4.95% 较上一期 4.83% 上行 0.12%。10Y Treasury Yield has updated this cycle, with its latest source-series observation of 4.95% rising 0.12% from 4.83%.

进入单指标终端Open single-indicator terminal
最近正式值Latest official value
4.95%

2026-09-10

前值Previous official value
4.83%

10年期美债收益率 的源序列观测水平较上一期上行 0.12%。The source-series observation for 10Y Treasury Yield rose by 0.12% versus the prior period.

下一预测Next forecast
+0.0 bp

2026-09-14

下一发布时间Next release
2026-09-14 00:00

2 天后In 2 days

正式发布时间历史表Official release table

这张表按最近到更早排序，固定保留最近 12 次正式发布时间、观测期和正式值。This table stays sorted from latest to older prints and keeps the latest 12 official release dates, observed periods, and official values.

正式发布时间Official release观测期Observed at正式值Official value当前周期标记Cycle flag
2026-09-102026-09-104.95%当前周期Current cycle
2026-09-092026-09-094.83%当前周期Current cycle
2026-09-082026-09-084.80%当前周期Current cycle
2026-09-042026-09-044.78%当前周期Current cycle
2026-09-032026-09-034.77%当前周期Current cycle
2026-09-022026-09-024.79%当前周期Current cycle
2026-09-012026-09-014.79%当前周期Current cycle
2026-08-312026-08-314.75%历史正式值Historical print
2026-08-282026-08-284.73%历史正式值Historical print
2026-08-272026-08-274.67%历史正式值Historical print
2026-08-262026-08-264.66%历史正式值Historical print
2026-08-252026-08-254.64%历史正式值Historical print
DGS2日频Daily

2年期美债收益率2Y Treasury Yield

2年期美债收益率 本周期已更新，最新源序列观测水平 4.56% 较上一期 4.43% 上行 0.13%。2Y Treasury Yield has updated this cycle, with its latest source-series observation of 4.56% rising 0.13% from 4.43%.

进入单指标终端Open single-indicator terminal
最近正式值Latest official value
4.56%

2026-09-10

前值Previous official value
4.43%

2年期美债收益率 的源序列观测水平较上一期上行 0.13%。The source-series observation for 2Y Treasury Yield rose by 0.13% versus the prior period.

下一预测Next forecast
+0.0 bp

2026-09-14

下一发布时间Next release
2026-09-14 00:00

2 天后In 2 days

正式发布时间历史表Official release table

这张表按最近到更早排序，固定保留最近 12 次正式发布时间、观测期和正式值。This table stays sorted from latest to older prints and keeps the latest 12 official release dates, observed periods, and official values.

正式发布时间Official release观测期Observed at正式值Official value当前周期标记Cycle flag
2026-09-102026-09-104.56%当前周期Current cycle
2026-09-092026-09-094.43%当前周期Current cycle
2026-09-082026-09-084.39%当前周期Current cycle
2026-09-042026-09-044.37%当前周期Current cycle
2026-09-032026-09-034.34%当前周期Current cycle
2026-09-022026-09-024.39%当前周期Current cycle
2026-09-012026-09-014.39%当前周期Current cycle
2026-08-312026-08-314.34%历史正式值Historical print
2026-08-282026-08-284.34%历史正式值Historical print
2026-08-272026-08-274.20%历史正式值Historical print
2026-08-262026-08-264.19%历史正式值Historical print
2026-08-252026-08-254.17%历史正式值Historical print
T10Y2Y日频Daily

10Y-2Y美债利差10Y-2Y Treasury Spread

10Y-2Y美债利差 本周期已更新，最新源序列观测水平 0.33% 较上一期 0.39% 下行 0.06%。10Y-2Y Treasury Spread has updated this cycle, with its latest source-series observation of 0.33% falling 0.06% from 0.39%.

进入单指标终端Open single-indicator terminal
最近正式值Latest official value
0.33%

2026-09-11

前值Previous official value
0.39%

10Y-2Y美债利差 的源序列观测水平较上一期下行 0.06%。The source-series observation for 10Y-2Y Treasury Spread fell by 0.06% versus the prior period.

下一预测Next forecast
+0.0 bp

2026-09-14

下一发布时间Next release
2026-09-14 00:00

2 天后In 2 days

正式发布时间历史表Official release table

这张表按最近到更早排序，固定保留最近 12 次正式发布时间、观测期和正式值。This table stays sorted from latest to older prints and keeps the latest 12 official release dates, observed periods, and official values.

正式发布时间Official release观测期Observed at正式值Official value当前周期标记Cycle flag
2026-09-112026-09-110.33%当前周期Current cycle
2026-09-102026-09-100.39%当前周期Current cycle
2026-09-092026-09-090.40%当前周期Current cycle
2026-09-082026-09-080.41%当前周期Current cycle
2026-09-042026-09-040.41%当前周期Current cycle
2026-09-032026-09-030.43%当前周期Current cycle
2026-09-022026-09-020.40%当前周期Current cycle
2026-09-012026-09-010.40%当前周期Current cycle
2026-08-312026-08-310.41%历史正式值Historical print
2026-08-282026-08-280.39%历史正式值Historical print
2026-08-272026-08-270.47%历史正式值Historical print
2026-08-262026-08-260.47%历史正式值Historical print
ICSA周频Weekly

初请失业金人数Initial Jobless Claims

初请失业金人数 当前沿用 205,250 作为最近模型目标实现值；本周期尚无新值可得，上一期为 206,000。Initial Jobless Claims is still carrying 205,250 as the latest realized model target; no new value is available and the prior period was 206,000.

进入单指标终端Open single-indicator terminal
最近正式值Latest official value
206,000

2026-09-10

前值Previous official value
206,000

初请失业金人数 本周期尚无新的模型目标实现值，当前仍按官方发布节奏等待。Initial Jobless Claims has no new realized model target this cycle and is waiting on the official release cadence.

下一预测Next forecast
205,250

2026-09-17

下一发布时间Next release
2026-09-17 00:00

5 天后In 5 days

正式发布时间历史表Official release table

这张表按最近到更早排序，固定保留最近 12 次正式发布时间、观测期和正式值。This table stays sorted from latest to older prints and keeps the latest 12 official release dates, observed periods, and official values.

正式发布时间Official release观测期Observed at正式值Official value当前周期标记Cycle flag
2026-09-102026-09-05205,250历史正式值Historical print
2026-09-032026-08-29206,000历史正式值Historical print
2026-08-272026-08-22204,250历史正式值Historical print
2026-08-202026-08-15202,750历史正式值Historical print
2026-08-132026-08-08198,000历史正式值Historical print
2026-08-062026-08-01197,750历史正式值Historical print
2026-07-302026-07-25201,750历史正式值Historical print
2026-07-232026-07-18206,250历史正式值Historical print
2026-07-162026-07-11213,250历史正式值Historical print
2026-07-092026-07-04217,750历史正式值Historical print
2026-07-022026-06-27221,250历史正式值Historical print
2026-06-252026-06-20223,750历史正式值Historical print